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 National Water Quality and Availability Management (NAWQAM), Implementing Water Demand Forecasting Models Within The Computational Framework 

Country and Location: Cairo, Egypt.
Name of Client: Canadian CIDA/Agriculture and Agri-Food of Canada
Address: Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation, Planning Sector, MWRI Main Building, 6th Floor.

Start Date

(Month/Year):

May 2006

Completion Date

(Month/Year):

June 2009

Narrative Description of Project:

 

 

A comprehensive implementation framework has been suggested for the determination of the past/present and future water demand of various usages. These usages include municipal, industrial, agricultural, livestock and fish farming demand. The analysis was based on following out certain guidelines for estimating demand based on the availability of data and its accuracy. Based on water consumption forecasting, a water consumption estimate is obtained for each component.

 

The Water Demand Forecasting Models have been built in two forms. The first is a simple form based on Spread (Excel) Sheet with proper links. The second is an Oracle-based Model using the same components of water demand forecasting.

 

The water demand for different usages and governorates were carried out using both the Spread-sheet and the Oracle-based Water Forecasting Models. The results indicate continuous increase of water demand values to all usages and corresponding continuous drop of water demand per capita.

 

Effects analyses have been carried out to identify various effects on water demand forecasts caused by the underlying determinants of consumptions.  These effects are represented in the form of ranges of coefficients at the specific year of influence. The coefficients are either positive indicating the relative increase in demand or negative showing a relative reduction in demand. The values of these coefficients are gathered from the literature or through expert experience and then adjusted to the Egyptian circumstances.

 

Description of Actual Services:

 

This project provided consulting services to the Planning Sector. The work included development relevant forecasting models, collecting and analyzing historical data of various usages, and getting the projection of the demands at various intervals of the future for all Egyptian Governorates.

 

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