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A
comprehensive implementation framework has been suggested for the
determination of the past/present and future water demand of various
usages. These usages included municipal, industrial, agriculture,
livestock and fish farming demand. The analysis was based on
following out certain guidelines for estimating demand based on the
availability of data and its accuracy. Once the forecasted series
are obtained, appropriate effects are applied to each usage. These
effects included population growth, water pricing, economic growth,
technology transfer and climatic changes. The approach was applied
to obtain the projected water demand forecasts of different usages
till year 2050.
Water
Demands have been classified as withdrawal and non-withdrawal water
demands. Withdrawal water demands includes municipal, industrial,
agriculture, livestock, and fish farming. On the other hand,
non-withdrawal demand comprises hydropower generation, navigation,
environmental demand and network constraints. Each type of demand
has its own characteristics and is influenced by many factors such
as:
| a) |
Population growth both urban
and rural. |
| b) |
Economic growth and economic
cycle. |
| c) |
Water pricing and related
water services charges. |
| d) |
Technological transfer and its
impact on reducing consumption via losses reduction and water
recirculation. |
| e) |
Climatic changes and outcoming
meteorological effects. |
These
factors separated or combined will have a strong effect on projected
water demand at various sectors.
In
order to overcome the problem of data deficiency, an implementation
framework was suggested for the present and future water demand for
each usage. Each framework gives the procedure to be followed if
appropriate data are available and accurate (high reliability
estimation) then gives the alternative procedure for each step in
data degradation (low reliability estimation).
The
forecasting model represents a functioning demand model that could
give the Planning sector of the Ministry of Water Resources and
Irrigation a useful tool to evaluate policy alternatives. The
particular value is the ability to anticipate changes in demand that
are not normally available though the traditional supply side
models. Used together with the supply side models, the demand models
would substantially enhance the capacity of the Ministry to develop
effective water resource policies and plans.
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